Quantitative Model Consulting

The problem: unvalidated models, unmeasured risk

A significant share of the models used by financial institutions carry methodological defects: look-ahead bias, overfitting and selection bias. Backtests systematically overstate live performance. The cost of these defects is paid in production.

Tradist Capital's quantitative research practice brings academic peer-review discipline into model development: every assumption is written down, every result is reported with confidence intervals, every analysis is reproducible by a third party.

Our approach: state-space and adaptive filtering

Our research infrastructure is built on state-space models and adaptive extended Kalman filter (AEKF) methodology. We model price not as a single true number but as a latent state evolving behind noisy measurements — and we produce estimates together with their uncertainty.

• Adaptive Kalman-filter-based estimation systems — noise covariances adapted from data, spectral-radius-based stability analysis
• Signal research and backtest audits — independent checks for data leakage, overfitting and transaction-cost assumptions
• Independent model validation and stress analysis — third-eye review of in-house models, regime-change and tail-scenario tests
• Market microstructure and price discovery analysis — liquidity and information-asymmetry dynamics on Borsa Istanbul and global equity markets

Deliverables

• Technical report — assumptions, method, results and limitations, with confidence intervals
• Reproducible code base — including data sources, parameter sets and random seeds
• Validation file — audit-ready test protocol and result records
• Team handover — documentation and sessions for your in-house team to take over the model

Frequently asked